2.30 Daahyeh 6-1
3.05 Private Secretary 4-1
3.40 Ten Sovereigns 5-1 (Ante Post) , Advertise 16-1 e/w (Ante post )
4.20 Hermosa 2-1 ( Ante Post)
5.00 Desirous 8-1 & Invitational 12-1(Notebook) ( 5/6 places bookies)
5.35 Baghdad 6-1 & Secret Advisor 16-1 ( 4/5 places with bookies)
Lucky 15 – 3.05 Private Secretary 9-2 , 3.40 Ten Sovereigns 5-4, 4.20 Hermosa 5-6 , 5.35 Baghdad 6-1
E/w Lucky 15 – 2.30 Daahyeh 5-1, 3.40 Advertise 7-1 ,5.00 Invitational 12-1 , 5.35 Secret Advisor 14-1
Link to Royal Ascot 2019 Analysis blog (Tues-Sat) – https://boomteamhq.wordpress.com/2019/06/11/royal-ascot-2019-preview-stats-and-analysis/
Link to Royal Ascot 2019 blog Mutiples & Teams ( Tues-Sat) – https://boomteamhq.wordpress.com/2019/06/16/royal-ascot-2019-few-multiples-and-the-teams/
2.30 Albany Stakes (Group 3 )
This is a race reserved for 2 year old fillies and many good horses have ran in it in recent years.The French caused a big shock two years ago when Different League won it at big odds. No real stats or trends for this race but it’s important to note that two out of the 17 winners did contest a maiden last time out with ten winning that maiden and there were eight winners who were having just their second career start.
Pay attention to those who have course form at Sandown as they have delivered three winners. Richard Hannon like to target this race and he has three winners to his name and all three entered the race after winning their maiden races. Another trainer that needs to be monitored closely is Mick Channon. He also has three winners to his name and two of them have won at big odds. Another five from his 12 runners have finished in the first six in the race.
Selection – Daahyeh 6-1
3.05 The King Edward VII Stakes ( Group 3 )
This race has been very kind to punters in recent years as 16 of the last 25 winners have started favorite or second favorite. The Irish have a very poor record in the race too as they have won it only once in the last 44 years. Aidan O’Brien favorites have lost four times in the last 6 years of which three have started at no bigger than 6/5. It could be that the ones that ran in the Derby are tired and its a race that comes way too soon for them.You have to look for a horse that has won a Group race before or have been competing at the highest level. 19 of the last 23 winners had already won a Group race before which is quite high. Over the years it’s normally an unexposed horse that comes and win this race when they are sent over this trip for the first time.
I have my eyes on a Gosden horse in this race in Private Secretary. He was a good second to the well regarded Space Blues last year at Nottingham. He is unbeaten this season having won three times and that includes the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes on his last start at Goodwood. At one point he was entered for the Derby but they have aimed him at this race instead. He has progressed with every start and could develop into a smart horse.
I am not sure which horses Aidan O’Brien will be running here but it looks likely that Japan will be confirmed. He has been the Derby favorite for most winter. He ran in the Dante where he was awful but that was just a warming up race to get him fit for the Derby. He drifted to 22-1 on the day but ran a stormer to finish in the places. It was a very encouraging run and they have always thought highly about him. The only question mark I have about him is whether this race will come too soon for him and also I have that O’Brien stat at the back of my mind.
Selection – Private Secretary 4-1
3.40 The Commonwealth Cup ( Group 1 )
No real stats or trends for this race as it’s been only run since 2015. It is reserved for three year olds and it’s ran over 6f. It’s been won by some superstars like Muhaarar, Quiet Reflection and the mighty Caravaggio. Whenever I write about this race I can see myself shouting at Ryan on Caravaggio once he starts moving to the rail and telling him to press the turbo button. That win was epic and won’t forget it. It’s a shame that Calyx suffered an injury when he suffered a shock defeat in the Sandy Lane at Haydock few weeks ago.
Ten Sovereigns is at the top of the betting and he was unbeaten last season in 3 starts. In fact he was one of my first antepost bets that I did on him for this race at 5-1 once he won the Group 1 Middle Stakes at Newmarket where he got the better of Jash by 1/2 length over 6f. He is a sprinter which is all about speed and I was surprised they did start him over a mile in the 2000 Guineas. I suppose that you won’t know if horses stay or not if you don’t run them and this is what Aidan did with him. He ran creditably well that day but didn’t show the same pace over further against horses that are proven stayers. The 4th on the day Madhmoon went on to run very well in the Derby and was only beaten by 1/2 length. He is a smashing horse and you will see a different horse next week over the minimum trip. He travels really well in his race and this son of No Nay Never has a great turn of foot as well which can help to make all the difference at the business end.
Jash reopposes here and has very decent claims too. He has shown he has trained on too when he won the King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket over 7. He stayed on very well and pulled clear of his rivals once Dane O’Neil asked him the question. Hello Youmzain is the Kodiac colt trained by Kevin Ryan. He made his seasonal debut in the Greenham where he ran well to finish 4th. He then benefited from Calyx injury at Haydock to win the Sandy Lane Stakes but he showed he is a much improved horse as he quickened away smartly in the last 2f to put the race to bed. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him as he has decent place claims.
Khaadem is a horse that I have been following closely since his 3rd to Calyx at Newmarket last year. He has won three times since and his latest success came in the Listed Carnavon Stakes at Newbury. That was a fantastic ride by James Doyle on the day and despite the drift he battled gamely at the finish to repel the challenge of Oxted and Barbill. I don’t think he is a Group 1 horse yet but he has place claims in the race. He is very talented and Charlie Hills has his string in good order as well which is a bonus.
Advertise seems to be the forgotten race in the race looking at the betting right now. He was only beaten under a length in the Coventry Stakes last year by Calyx. His biggest win came in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh where he was very impressive. He then finished 2nd in the Dewhurst behind the best two year old horse of last season in Too Darn Hot. He was stepped up in trip in the 2000 Guineas on his seasonal debut where he didn’t appear to stay as he weakened away tamely in the last furlong. We can always forgive a horse a bad run especially when it’s their first start of the season over a new trip. He will be more at home over the minimum trip and I can see him running a big race. I am surprised he is still available at 16-1.
A little mention for the French raider Big Brothers Pride from the Jean Pierre Boudot stable. He won the Group 3 Prix Sigy recently at Chantilly where he showed a nice turn of foot but if the ground is very soft next Friday I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well. Far Above finished 4th behind Jash in the King Charles II Stakes and was a little bit rusty. He won very easily on his next start at Windsor but he will need to improve a bit to worry the market leaders.
Selection – Ten Sovereigns 5-1 (Ante Post) , Advertise 16-1 e/w
4.20 The Coronation Stakes (Group 1 )
This is the feature race on Friday and it promises to be an exciting one as it was last year when Alpha Centauri broke the track record to complete the Irish Guineas-Coronation double.There has been few surprises in this race over the years but 16 of the last 19 winners were no bigger than 6-1 with ten starting favorite or joint favorite. The 1000 Guineas at Newmarket has been responsible for providing ten of the last 16 winners. Trainers who have a good record in this race are Sir Michael Stoute who won it four times , Aidan O’Brien with 3 wins to his name and John Gosden with 2.
Hermosa has been rerouted here instead of going for the French Oaks on Sunday and she comes here with a solid chance after winning both Irish and English Guineas. She has progressed a lot this season and looks a serious horse on what we have seen so far. She was third to Skitter Scatter in the Moyglare and then finished second to Iridessa in the Fillies Mile at Newmarket. She again finished second in another Group 1 at Chantilly behind Royal Meeting. She was unfancied in the 1000 Guineas but showed her class when she made all before staying on strongly in the closing stages to beat the ill fated Lady Kaya and Qabala. A few weeks later she went to the Irish 1000 Guineas where she was even more impressive. She gave a good beating to Pretty Pollyanna that day and won like a 1/3 shot. She seemed to have improved again and her turn of foot is a real asset. She travels well in all her races and will be very hard to beat next Friday. She rates as one of the banker of the festival if she is in same form as she was in May and could become the tenth Irish Guineas winner to follow up here in the last 32 years.
Jubiloso represents the Stoute team and is the unknown in the race. She could be anything and this Sharmadal filly looked the part when she won on debut at Newbury. She took up the running and won very easily. The fact that she has a lethal turn of foot could help her but she will need to improve a bit to reach the level of Hermosa who has plenty of Group 1 form in the book and has proven it against better horses.But she is a very exciting filly and when Stoute throws one of her maiden winners straight into a Group 1 you do take notice immediately !
Castle Lady flies the flag for France in the race and she was the winner of the French 1000 Guineas at Lonchamp back in May. She narrowly got her nose ahead that day beating Commes and East. The latter has since disappointed and the form of that race doesn’t look that strong to me. The fifth that day Matematica also let the form down on her next start when she was well beaten in the Prix Sandringham.
Pretty Pollyanna is the other proven Group 1 horse in the race and she comes here on the back of a good second behind Hermosa in the 1000 Guineas at the Curragh. She lost her way towards the end of last season when she was 3rd to Iridessa in the Fillies Mile. Before that she disappointed in the Cheveley Park Stakes when she finished 4th but to be fair she wasn’t given the best of rides. She won the Group 1 Prix Morny in France as well as the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes on the July course. If she takes her chance next well she will go there with decent place claims and isn’t one to be discounted. If Hermosa has an off day she could be the one to benefit with Frankie on board.
I have plenty of time for Qabala and she was a very good winner for us in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket on seasonal debut. She landed a big gamble on the day. She then ran a stormer in the 1000 Guineas and wasn’t beaten far in third. She disappointed in the Irish version at the Curragh but she wasn’t right as she was found to be lame after the race. She was being pushed after 2 furlong and was never travelling. That wasn’t her true running and let’s hope she is 100% fit next week. I don’t think she will reverse the form with Hermosa but she will have decent place claims if she is in the line up next week.
Maqsad is another one of my favorite horses in training and she has won 2 races already this season. This daughter of Siyouni won her maiden race at Newmarket back in April when she narrowly got the better of Twist N Shake. She then followed up at the same track when she annihilated the field in the Pretty Polly Stakes. She is such a strong traveler and has a terrific turn of foot. She was then sent to the Epsom Oaks where she stepped up in trip. She traveled like the best horse in the race till the 2f post but she simply didn’t stay the trip. The jockey looked after her once he knew she couldn’t win. She comes here with a live chance now she is dropped back in trip. I saw her in the flesh at Epsom and she looked like a million dollars. I am sure she will run a good race next week. The only concern is the Haggas stats at Royal Ascot in the last 6 years- 71 runners and 71 losers ! (Non Runner)
Of the rest I can’t see anything that can cause an upset or trouble the market leaders. The likes of Matematica, Foxtrot Liv or East are simply not good enough. For the winner I think Hermosa will take the beating and she is a good thing for this race.
Selection – Hermosa 2-1 ( Ante Post)
5.00 The Sandringham Stakes ( Listed-Handicap)
This is a race reserved for 3 year old fillies and it has been run as a handicap race for the first time last year. It has been a race for punters recently since only 3 of the last 23 winners could not be found in the top 6 in the betting. Agrotera won this well for us last year when she landed a monster gamble.She defied the stats that day and became the first last time out maiden since 2000.
Whatever Jamie Spencer is riding needs to be under close scrutiny since he is the man for these races having won it four times since 2006. Like I have mentioned previously Jamie is one of the best jockeys riding a hold up horse over the straight mile at Ascot. Look out for a Nell Gwyn runner as they tend to run well in this race. Also there has been 18 winners from the last 23 that have already won previously so this is a strong stat. There has been recently two winners that were placed in the Pretty Polly Stakes won by Maqsad that have won this race after dropping back in trip. The two trainers that like to target this race are Mark Johnston and John Gosden. The latter had 8 runners making the frame out of the last 22. Mark Johnston has five winners to his name in the race.
The likes of Mark Johnston and John Gosden like to target this race so it’s worth to pay attention to what they run. Gosden’s 8 runners from 21 have all made the frame in this race. Michael Bell and Ed Dunlop are other trainers worth mentioning as they know how to win this race with fillies having each won it twice. Two other trainers who have a decent record in race are Ed Dunlop and Michael Bell so it’s worth paying attention to what they will be running here.
Selection -Desirous 8-1 & Invitational 12-1
5.35 The Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap)
This is another tough little race where the draw played an important role in the last few years. You have to look out for horses drawn wider in double figure stalls since it’s run over the 1m4f trip. Horses drawn in 19 won the last 2 renewals and even those who were placed got a high draw. Also pay attention to last time out winners since they have won 11 of the last 23 runnings. The ideal horse should be a 4 or 5 year old coming here off the back of a victory and who is drawn high. Horses that were drawn wider in double figure stalls have won the last eight renewals of this race
. Dash of Spice won this race for us last year and he was drawn in stall 14. In 2017 the first , second and fourth were drawn in 19.18 and 17 respectively. And in 2016 the first, second and third were drawn in 19,13 and 15. This race has been tough for punters to solve recently as there has been some big price winners in the last 12 years. 13 of the last 25 renewals of this race have been won by horses that have been in the top 4 in the betting excluding the favorite. Sir Michael Stoute has a cracking record in the race having won it 6 times from his last 18 runners and also had 3 runners ups. Mark Johnston has won it three times as well.
Selection -Baghdad 6-1 & Secret Advisor 16-1