2.00 The Trader 5-1
2.35 Anna Nerium 5-1
3.10 Bye Bye Hong Kong 5-2
3.45 Duke of Firenze 7-1 & Muthmir 11-1 ( 6 places with @skybet)
4.30 Broome 11-2 & Madhmoon 10-1 (Notebook) ( 4 places with @skybet,@paddypower, @williamhill etc ) – No write ups for now as I am out drinking but might do one tomorrow morning.
Scroll down for write up
5.15 Sextant 7-4
E/w Lucky 15 – 2.00 The Trader 5-1 , 2.35 Anna Nerium 5-1, 3.45 Duke of Firenze 7-1 , 4.30 Broome 9-2 ( @skybet)
Sir Dragonet heads the betting after his demolition job on rain softened ground in the Chester Vase few weeks ago. He is drawn in 13 and will be experiencing different conditions in few hours time. The ground is rattling fast from what I saw yesterday and he could be vulnerable. He can be taken on just like Meydaayih in the Oaks. Sir DragonLay 🙂
Telecaster has been supplemented for the race and his only defeat so far came at the hands of Bangkok at Doncaster back in April. He won his maiden in impressive fashion at Windsor before following up in the Dante Stakes at York where he got the better of Too Darn Hot in a fascinating duel on the Knavesmire. He is a very good horse and his sectionals at York were sublime. He will face similar conditions at Epsom and will enjoy the quick ground. The trip wouldn’t be a concern for him as he is by New Approach out of dual Oaks runner up Shirocco Star. He has plenty of stamina in his pedigree and won’t have any problem staying the extra 2f. The slight concern with him is he ran quite free at York and will need to settle better. Also he has been drawn in 2 and its a stall that has been cursed over the years as no horse has won the Derby from there. I can’t see him out of the places though and has the assistance of one of the best jockeys in Oisin Murphy.
Broome is one of my selection here and I had my eyes on him since finishing 2nd to Madhmoon ( we backed it that day on Super Sunday) in the Champion Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown. He then went to Longchamp where he was beaten by a nostril by Royal Marine in the Group 1 Jean Luc Lagadere. He made his seasonal debut in the Ballysax Stakes where he destroyed his stable mate Sovereign by 8 lengths. He followed up in the Derrinstown last month where he was once again very impressive. He won’t have any problem with the trip and he has form over quick surface too. The son of Australia could emulate his Dad if things fall into place and has a solid chance with Donnacha doing the steering.
Anthony Van Dyck is the other O’Brien horse in the race and he has some solid form over 7f when only beaten by the likes of Quorto and Too Darn Hot. He went to the Breeders Cup where he didn’t run to form and being drawn in the car park didn’t help his cause too. He made his reappearance in the Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield where he was mightily impressive. He looked much stronger than last year and traveled supremely well on the day. They didn’t expect him to win the race and he drifted like a barge before race. He could run a big race too being by Galileo and I expect him to be thereabouts.
Madhmoon is one of horses I follow and did us a nice favour last year on Super Sunday when he won the Champion Juvenile Stakes. He was beaten on debut in the Ballylinch Trial but he wasn’t there to win on the day. He was giving weight to the winner Never No More as well. He ran a fantastic race in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket where he finished 4th and could have possibly been on the wrong side of the track. He was staying on powerfully that day and looked like he needed further. He reminds me a bit of Masar last year. He will relish the ground conditions too. I have a slight concern about him in that we are going into the unknown re stepping up in trip. He is by Dawn Approach ( our legendary horse) and one we backed for the Derby but he didn’t stay the trip 6 years ago. Connections are bullish he will stay though and let’s hope he doesn’t do a Maqsad ( Don’t give up on her yet as she will win big races once dropped back in distance)
The King Power owned Bangkok represents the Balding stable and he is unbeaten in 2 starts this year. He won his maiden stakes at Doncaster back in March and the race has worked out well with Telecaster having won a Group 2. He followed up in the Classic Trial at Sandown. He raced keenly that day but quickened away smartly before staying on powerfully at the end. He will have to improve again to win the Derby and I can’t see it.
Circus Maximus is the other O’Brien horse in race and he ran in very good company last year. He was beaten in the Autumn Stakes by Persian king and Magna Grecia who won the French and English Guineas. He finished 4th in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity beaten by Magna Grecia and Phoenix of Spain. The latter destroyed the field in the Irish 2000 Guineas last week. As you can see he has ran against some very good horses last year and brings some solid form on the table. He won in workmanlike fashion for us in the Dee Stakes but he will come on leaps and bounds from this race. He is wearing cheekpieces for the first time and Frankie has been booked. He is the dark horse in race and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him.
Japan is the forgotten horse in race and he was one of the favorites of the Derby for few months. He won the Beresford Stakes last year at Naas and disappointed on his seasonal debut in the Dante at York. He has 6-7 lengths to find with Telecaster but everyone knows he wasn’t ready that day. He drifted from 3’s to 8-1 and he didn’t looked 100% to me on the day. One bad run can be forgiven and he might be the one that cause an upset in race. The Beresford winners have also delivered some classic winners in last few years in Capri and Saxon Warrior so don’t be surprised if Japan wins. He could get a lot closer to Telecaster later as O’Brien horses come on a lot from their first run as we saw yesterday with Kew Gardens , Fleeting, Pink Dogwood etc. Line of Duty is a big price but he ran shockingly in the Dante. I am not sure about him over this trip as well so for this reason I will discount him.