Friday 2nd November

BC

Churchill Downs

19.21 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint – 

Soldiers Call 4-1 ( Sticking with him based on his solid Group form and also the draw which could be crucial around a tight track like Churchill Down over a bend. He finished 3rd at Longchamp behind Mabs Cross in a tight finish. He was also very impressive in the Flying Childers. The one i am scared of is Sergei Prokofiev. He was back to his best last time at Newmarket and showed a great turn of foot in the process. Granted he gets some luck he could reel in the front runners at end)

20.00 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-

Newspaperofrecord 7-4 , saver Belle Laura 100-1( on bet365)

20.40 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (Fillies Grade 1) –

Restless Rider 4-1

21.22  Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (Colts & Geldings) –

Line of Duty 7-2 & Forty Under 11-1

22.05  Breeders Cup Juvenile (Colts & Geldings)-

Complexity 7-2 ( I will have a saver on Code of Honor at 15-2 since if both Complexity & Game Winner cut each other’s throat in front ,the race could be set up for a closer in Code of Honor or Gunmetal Gray)

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Lucky 15 – 20.00 Newspaperofrecord 7-4 , 20.40 Restless Rider 7-2,  21.22 Line of Duty 7-2, 22.05 Complexity 7-2

Little E/w Trixie -19.21 Soldiers Call 7-2 , 21.22 Forty Under 11-1 , 22.05 Code of Honor 11-2

 

 

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Sunday 28th October

Aintree

1.15 Settimo Milanese 4-1

1.50 Beat That 5-2

3.00 Flying Angel 11-2

3.35 Polydora 8-1 (Notebook)

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Chantilly – 2.45 Brundtland 5-2

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Lucky 15 – 1.15 Settino Milanese 4-1 , 1.50 Beat That 5-2 , 2.45 Brundtland 5-2, 3.00 Flying Angel 11-2

 

 

Saturday 27th October

Cheltenham

2.00 Doing Fine 14-1 & Dell Arca 20-1

2.35 Gumball 15-8

3.10 Foxtail Hill 4-1

3.45 Milrow 40-1

5.30 Strong Glance 13-2

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Newbury – 2.20 Young Rascal 13-8 , 2.50 Chairmanoftheboard 7-4

Doncaster – 2.15 Beat Le Bon 11-4 (Notebook), 4.05 Magna Grecia 6-4

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Lucky 15 – 2.50 Chairmanoftheboard 7-4, 3.10 Foxtail Hill 4-1, 4.05 Magna Grecia 6-4 . 5.30 Strong Glance 13-2

Little E/w Trixie  -2.00 Doing Fine 12-1 , 3.45 Milrow 40-1 , 5.30 Strong Glance 13-2

 

Reminder as always

It’s the start of the new jumping season. As usual I will have to remind you that it will take a few weeks for it to settle down. Some horses will need their first run while others have bigger targets ahead. So no need to break the betting bank that we have built patiently all year round. The ultimate target will be at Cheltenham in March but to bash bookies there we need to start somewhere & that has started today. Get your notebook or tracker out. Enjoy the racing and good luck.

 

Friday 26th October

cheltenhhh

Cheltenham

2.35 Diakali 13-8

3.10 And The New 10-1 & Brillare Momento 11-1

3.45 Shannon Bridge 9-2

4.20 Sebastopol 2-1

5.30 Magic Dancer 11-2 (Notebook)

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Lucky 15 – 2.35 Diakali 6-4 , 3.45 Shannon Bridge 9-2 , 4.20 Sebastopol 7-4, 5.30 Magic Dancer 11-2

* It’s the start of the new jumping season. As usual I will have to remind you that it will take a few weeks for it to settle down. Some horses will need their first run while others have bigger targets ahead. So no need to break the betting bank that we have built patiently all year round. The ultimate target will be at Cheltenham in March but to bash bookies there we need to start somewhere & that starts tomorrow. Get your notebook or tracker out. Enjoy the racing and good luck.

 

 

Saturday 20th October

LTDDD

Ascot 

1.25 Stradivarius 10-11

2.00 The Tin Man 7-2 & Tasleet 10-1

2.40 Lah Ti Dar 7-2 ( Ante Post)

3.15 Recoletos 5-1 ( 5 places with William Hill )

3.50 Capri 13-2

4.30 Kynren 11-1 & Via Via 12-1 ( 5/6 places with bookies)

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Trixie – 1.25 Stradivarius 10-11 , 2.40 Lah Ti Dar 11-8 , 3.15 Recoletos 6-1 (Paddy Power)

E/w Lucky 15 – 2.00 Tasleet 10-1 , 3.15 Recoletos 5-1 , 3.50 Capri 13-2 , 4.30 Via Via 12-1 ( William Hill)

* It’s Champions Day tomorrow and hopefully the sun comes out which will help the ground drying up a bit. As usual not all favorites will win and it rarely happens at Ascot in October. Do shop around for bookies paying 4/5/6 places in races and also do play the place market when needed. This game is all about profit no matter how you make it. Below is write up for the Group 1 races which hopefully will help you in deciding which horses to bet. For those of you who ask me about free bets well there is only Betstars right now who are offering a free matched bet of £20  if you place your first bet on anything evens or above. You can either go to App store to download or use this https://t.co/f2kHNYUf5S Good luck tomorrow.

 

1.25 British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)

Stradivarius is the form horse in the race and the Champion Stayer of 2018. He’s won four times already this season including the Gold Cup here in June and the Goodwood Cup. He is the one they all have to beat tomorrow. The ground is a slight concern as he’s been beaten everytime when there was soft in the description. He finished a close 3rd in the race last year won by Order of St George in a thrilling finish.I expect the ground to dry out till tomorrow with no rain being forecast. He has the class to win his fifth race of the season and I am staying loyal to him for all the money he won me since the Queen’s Vase.

The main danger is the O’Brien horse Flag of Honour He won his last three races very easily and is a progressive horse. He was very impressive when winning the Irish St Leger where he showed an impressive turn of foot to win going away. Thomas Hobson won a weak Doncaster Cup where he saw off his stable mate Max Dynamite. Before this he was soundly beaten by Flag of Honour in the Irish St Leger Trials and also in the Queen Alexandra.

The Camelot colt Sir Erec was very good at Limerick last time when he won the Listed Molony Stakes in impressive fashion. This will be a different kettle of fish though and he will need to improve again to trouble the market leaders. It’s a 2 horse race and despite the fact Stradivarius is giving away plenty of weight to Flag of Honour I still think he will find a little bit extra at his beloved Ascot.

Selection – Stradivarius 10-11

2.00 British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1 )

One of the trickiest races on the card tomorrow since most of these have beaten each other during the season and we can make a case for 5/6 of them. The Tin Man heads the market after his latest success in the Sprint Cup at Haydock where he demolished a good field that included Harry Angel, Brando, Tasleet who all re opposed tomorrow. Despite the ground being on the soft side he showed a great turn of foot that day to win easily. The ground wouldn’t be a problem for him and he loves Ascot too. He won 3 times already here including the Diamond Jubilee Stakes in 2017 beating Tasleet by a neck and this same race in 2016. He was 3rd in the Group 1 Maurice De Gheest in France behind Polydream. He’s been running well all season and he goes into race with a lively chance.

Librisa Breeze is the defending champion but  hasn’t won a race since.He was very disappointing at Newbury in the Hungerford Stakes and never featured in the Diamond Jubilee race here back in the summer. He showed sign of revival in France when he finished 4th to Polydream. The big asset to him tomorrow will be the ground and he will relish conditions just like he did last year when it was soft ground. He is a horse that needs delivering at the right time and if he does then he will be a major player.

Which Harry Angel will turn up tomorrow? He won the Group 2 on his seasonal debut at York but then fluffed his lines at Ascot where he played up in the stalls and lost all chances. He was disappointing again in the Sprint Cup but it seems to me that he didn’t enjoy the heavy ground that day. If he brings his A game to the table he is the class horse in the field but it is a big IF. He’s now lost 5 times in a row at Ascot and i can’t see him win tomorrow on a track he hates.

Brando has been a consistent horse this season and has ran in all the big sprint races. He won the Abernant Stakes on his seasonal debut at Newmarket and then went on to finish 2nd behind Harry Angel at York. He was also 4th in the Diamond Jubilee and 2nd in the July Stakes. On his last start he finished 2nd to The Tin Man in the Sprint Cup. Based on these  runs he must have a solid each way chance tomorrow for Kevin Ryan.

Tasleet represents the Haggas team and he has only ran twice this season. He was 3rd to Merchant Navy in the Greenlands Stake at the Curragh before he got injured. We didn’t see him back in action till last month where he finished 8th in the Sprint Cup.  I think he needed that run and they were getting him ready for tomorrow’s race. Don’t forget that he was 2nd in the race last year.He is a big price right now and I expect him to feature at the finish tomorrow. I don’t think Limato will run if the ground is still soft. He needs good ground to show his turn of foot but if he runs tomorrow he can be discounted.

Projection is a huge price at 20-1 in race too. He has a great record at Ascot ( 3rd in the Wokingham,2nd in the Bengough Stakes behind Blue Point last year, 5th in the Diamond Jubilee and won the Bengough Stakes few weeks ago). He will have no problem with the ground and is pretty versatile. He is well over priced in my opinion. Of the rest I think Speak In Colours has a tiny each way chance too but he will need to improve to beat the main protagonists mentioned above .

Selection – The Tin Man 7-2 & Tasleet 10-1 

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2.40 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes ( Group 1 )

Aidan O’Brien has 6 fillies out of 11 entered in this race including the defending champion Hydrangea. Lah Ti Dar heads the betting and the John Gosden filly will attempt to win her 1st Group 1 of her career tomorrow.She’s another one we have been following all season and this race has been the aim since she finished 2nd to Kew Gardens in the St Leger at Doncaster. Most of us snapped the 7-2 available shortly after since we didn’t expect her to run or beat Enable in the Arc. She won her maiden at Newbury back in April. She then followed up in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the same track where she showed a devastating turn of foot to win going away.

She then got injured and missed the Epsom Oaks and the Ribblesdale at Ascot. She re appeared at York where she made mince meat of the opposition once again winning easily by 10 lengths eased down. She wasn’t disgraced in the St Leger on her last start and ran well for her 1st run against the boys. Kew Gardens was too good on the day and both of them pulled well clear of the field. She drops back in trip tomorrow which isn’t a problem as she is versatile. I can’t see her getting beat tomorrow as long as the O’Brien horses don’t block her or something. She is the best horse in the race and barring accident she should be winning, But nothing is a certainty in racing and she will have to beat 3 good horses in Coronet, Hydrangea and Kitesurf.

Coronet was 3rd in the race last year behind Hydrangea and has been a model of consistency this season. She won on her seasonal debut at York before finishing 2nd to Waldgeist in the Grand Prix De Paris. She was well beaten into 3rd in the King George behind Poets Word and had no answer to the brilliant Sea of Class in the Yorkshire Oaks. She is an each way bet to nothing in race and i can see her coming home fast and late in race to hopefully get 2nd behind Lah Ti Dar.

Kitesurf represent the Godolphin connection and is trained by the master trainer Andre Fabre. She has improved with every run this season. Her last win came in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille where she beat the O’Brien horse Magic Wand easily at the end. The latter ran well at Longchamp behind the exciting Wild Illusion. She was entered at Longchamp but they have saved her for this race. The only slight concern for me will be the ground as she has won on good ground before.

Hydrangea is the defending champion but she has been very disappointing this season on her 3 starts to date. She was beaten at odds on on her seasonal debut at the Curragh before disappointing in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes. She finished down the field in the King George and hasn’t been seen since. I think she has been prepared for the race and you can trust Aiden to get any filly to peak on any day! On form she has no chance but do remember she is one of two Group 1 winners in the field and i wouldn’t put anyone off backing her each way.

Magical is another one that has been disappointing this season even though she ran in 2 very good races namely the Matron Stakes and the Arc. It could be that she will enjoy racing against her own sex and if the market leaders have an off day she could be the dark horse in race. Of the rest I can’t see them winning but like i have always said fillies can’t be trusted. They win whenever they want at whatever prices. Even the odds on fillies get beat at 1-6 or 1-4. Taghroooda at York few years ago and Alpha Centauri are the 2 that comes to mind as I thought they were certainties to win.

For the winner I will stick with Lah Ti Dar and I can see Coronet chasing her home to give a 1-2 for  John Gosden.

Selection – Lah Ti Dar 7-2 ( Ante Post)

3.15 Queen Elizabeth Stakes II (Group 1 )

This is one of the race of the meeting tomorrow on the straight mile at Ascot. I should have been writing about Saxon Warrior here but sadly he got injured in the Irish Champion. His conqueror that day Roaring Lion takes his chances here instead of the Champion Stakes. He will be dropping in trip here and has been drawn 15 out of 15.There is no doubt that he is the class horse in race having won his last 3 Group 1 races that included the Coral Eclipse, Juddmonte and the Irish Champion.

He has been a transformed horse since his 3rd in the Derby where he didn’t stay despite travelling the best in the race at some point. His lethal turn of foot is unbelievable and he travels well in his races too. He’s done all his winning this year on good to firm/ good ground but let’s also remember he won the Royal Lodge last year on good to soft at Newmarket. He should be able to handle the conditions tomorrow and will be involved in the finish. The slight concern is whether they will be using the race as preparation for a tilt at the Breeder Cup in 2 weeks time and as such they ‘might’ not give him a hard race.

Recoletos is a live danger and he has been on my radar since his 4th in the Champion Stakes last year. He ran a superb race that day but faded in the closing stages trying to chase an in form Cracksman. In my eyes he didn’t stay the trip that day and since he’s been dropped to a mile he’s been a revelation. He won the Group 1 Prix D’ispahan very easily at Longchamp when we were on. He got upset at Ascot before the Queen Anne where there was some mix up etc. He then pulled well clear in the Group 1 Jacques le Marois behind the monster Alpha Centauri. He then went on to win the Group 1 Prix Du Moulin at Longchamp when coming late to take the honours. He travels well in his races and he is over priced at 6-1. There are 5 places with bookies in this race and he is a shoe in to be placed at least.

Laurens has been a model of consistency this season having won 4 Group 1’s so far. She made her seasonal debut in the 1000 Guineas where she ran a cracking race to finish behind Billesdon Brook. She then went to France to win another 2 Group 1’s namely Prix Alary and Prix Diane.She didn’t stay when upped in trip in the Yorkshire Oaks. She then caused a big upset when she won the Matron Stakes beating Alpha Centauri. She is a tough cookie to pass when she is in front and is a hard as nails in that she battles all the way to the line. Her last race culminated in her winning the Sun Chariot and clearly she is a filly in form. This will be another kettle of fish against the boys though. She had a long season but she will always give you a run for your money if you decide to back her.

Lord Glitters never runs a bad race at Ascot and he did us a huge favour last year when he won the Balmoral. He has always been 1st or 2nd at Ascot. He was 2nd in the Queen Anne Stakes here before finding Beat the Bank too strong in the Summer Mile.In the Sussex Stake he ran another great race when coming late to get 3rd behind Lightning Spear. His penultimate run came at York when he won the Strensall Stake beating Mustashry who has won twice since.

Addeybb has’t run since finishing 8th in the Lockinge Stakes. He comes here as a fresh horse and shouldn’t be discounted. He was very good in his penultimate start when he destroyed the field in the bet365 Mile at Sandown. He could have a say in race if the main protagonists fail to fire.

Beat the Bank won the Fred Cowley here in July before finishing 5th in the Sussex Stakes. He then went on to win the Group 2 Celebration Mile when Oisin gave him a fantastic ride to win right on the line. I don’t think he is a Group 1 horse yet.

Lightning Spear is one i don’t like even if it took him ages to win his well deserved Group 1 at Goodwood. To be fair he ran well this season having finished 2nd in the Lockinge and 3rd in the Queen Anne but he was too disappointing in the Prix Moulin won by Recoletos.

For the winner I will stick with Recoletos and he is a decent price right now. He will give us a run for our money and William Hill are paying out 5 places too.

Selection – Recoletos 5-1

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3.50 Champion Stakes (Group 1 )

This is the last Group 1 of the day and by now I hope we will be well in front. Cracksman is the defending champion and we all still have that image of him powering to the finishing line in the rain last year reminiscent of his Dad, the great Frankel few years ago. He won the Prix Ganay in impressive fashion on his seasonal debut at Longchamp. He had to work really hard to win the Coronation Stakes at Epsom where only his class helped him. He then ran a shocker at Royal Ascot in the Prince of Wales Stakes when he was soundly beaten by a very good horse in Poet’s Word who then went on to win the King George at the same track. The good to firm ground and the fact he got edgy before the race were the excuses used that day to explain the defeat. He is wearing blinkers for the first time tomorrow and that will help him concentrating better instead of eyeing the fillies in the paddock!. He will also relish conditions and the fact he had a nice break will also help him. He is too short in the betting for me though. He might well piss it by miles but I am going to look elsewhere.

Crystal Ocean has been very consistent this season and has never finished out of the first 2 so far this year.He destroyed the field in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and then finished a length behind Poet’s Word in the King George. He stayed on gamely that day before being reeled in at the finish by the winner.He was then outclassed in the September Stakes by Enable when giving away 8lb.  He is a solid horse and has gears but I think he will find one good enough in Group 1 company again.

The one that interest me is Capri.He got injured this season after winning at Naas. He reappeared in the Prix Foy where he was given a tender ride and we all saw he needed that run. Ryan did look after him on the day. His last start was in the Arc where he finished a solid 5th .He ran really well that day and being lightly campaigned this season I think he will be back to full fitness tomorrow. The master Aidan O’Brien will have him at his peak and i expect a good run.At 13-2 he is certainly good value in my eyes.

I can’t see him out of top 3 and if Cracksman fail to fire again then I expect Capri to be there. We all know the form of the St Leger he won last year and he  has also beaten Cracksman (not given a good ride on day in my opinion) in the Irish Derby.

Monarch’s Glen comes here as the forgotten horse and he also represents decent value since he is an improving horse. He won the Wolferton Stakes here in June and the form has really worked out well( check out the form ). He goes well fresh, loves the course too and will relish underfoot conditions which are all positives. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him each way at 14/16.  For the winner though I will stick with Capri and he is my bet win &place. 

Selection – Capri 13-2

 

 

 

Saturday 13th October

Newmarket

1.50 Sydney Opera House 5-2

2.25 Persian King 7-4

3.00 Too Darn Hot 11-10

3.40 Southern France 8-1(Notebook) & Whiskey Sour 20-1

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York -2.40 Constant 13-2 , 3.15 Al Qahwa 7-1 &  Teruntum Star 14-1

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Lucky 15 – 1.50 Sydney Opera House 9-4, 2.25 Persian King 7-4 , 3.00 Too Darn Hot 10-11, 3.40 Southern France 11-2

E/w Trixie – 2.40 Constant 5-1 , 3.15 Teruntum Star 14-1 , 3.45 Whiskey Sour 20-1

Friday 12th October

Newmarket

1.50 True Mason 10-3 (Money back as free bet with @skybet if 2nd or 3rd)

2.25 Hidden Message 3-1

3.00 D’Bai 7-2

3.35 Pretty Pollyanna 4-1

4.10 Astronomer 9-2

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York – 2.40 Just Hiss 12-1 , 3.50 Proschema 11-1

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Lucky 15 – 1.50 True Mason 10-3 , 2.25 Hidden Message 5-2 , 3.00 D’Bai 10-3 . 3.35 Pretty Pollyanna 7-2