Saturday 28th October

Cheltenham

2.00 Bells N Banjos 12-1

3.10 Foxtail Hill 8-1

3.45 Whataknight 10-1 & Tempestatefloresco 14-1

4.55 Robinhannon 11-8

5.30 Herecomestheboom 14-1

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Doncaster – 3.25 Saxon Warrior 6-4 & Seahenge 12-1 (Notebook), 4.00 Atletico 14-1

Newbury – 3.55 Expressiy 9-1

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E/w Lucky 15 – 2.00 Bells N Banjos 12-1 , 3.25 Seahenge 11-1 ,3.45 Whataknight 10-1, 3.55 Expressiy 15-2

 

  • It’s a tricky day tomorrow so make sure you shop around to get best prices with bookies that are paying 4/5 places. Early start in OZ where Winx bar accident will be winning her 3rd Cox Plate and make history. I know many of you who have invested on her since last year from 3-1 all the way down to evens/4-6. Might tweet few bets later over in OZ. Hopefully AOB makes history too over at Doncaster too. Good luck.

 

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Friday 27th October

Cheltenham

2.35 Movewiththetimes 15-8

3.10 Eaton Hill 8-1

3.45 Fagan 6-4

4.20 Indian Castle 10-1 & Regal Flow 10-1(Notebook)

4.55 Slate House 4-5

5.30 Bobble Emerald 16-1

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Doncaster – 3.35 Outback Traveller 8-1(Notebook) & Al Qahwa 14-1, 4.45 Ajman King 9-4

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Trixie – 2.35 Movewiththetimes 13-8 , 3.45 Fagan 11-8 , 4.45 Ajman King 2-1

E/w Lucky 15 – 3.10 Eaton Hill 8-1 , 4.20 Indian Castle 10-1.  5.30 Bobble Emerald 14-1 , 3.35 Outback Traveller 15-2

 

Saturday 21st October

Raaaaaaaa

Ascot 

1.25 Order of St George  6-4 /11-10(Ante Post)

2.00 Caravaggio 9-2

2.40 Bateel 5-1 (Ante Post)

3.15 Beat The Bank 11-2

3.50 Brametot 6-1(Notebook) &  Poets Word 7-1

4.30 Lord Glitters 4-1(Notebook)  (5  places with bookies)

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Trixie – 1.25 Order of St George 10-11 , 2.40 Bateel 5-2 , 3.50 Brametot 11-2

E/w Lucky 15 – 2.00 Caravaggio 9-2 , 3.15 Beat The Bank 11-2 , 3.50 Poets Word 7-1, 4.30 Speculative Bid 14-1

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1.25 British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)

The obvious starting point here is Order of St George who comes here on the back of another good season. He finished 3rd in the Arc few weeks ago where he ran another stormer. Previously he won the Irish St Leger where he made mince meat of his rivals. He gets his ideal conditions here and will be tough to beat.

His main market rival will be Big Orange who beat him in the Gold Cup in a thrilling finish in June. I reckon he might not run tomorrow due to the ground. Stradivarius had a fine campaign too. He won for us at the Royal meeting before following up in the Goodwood Cup. He was 3rd in the St Leger in his latest start and wasn’t too far behind Capri. He represents good value on the place market. He also gets weight for age allowance which will help in that ground.

SheikhzayedRoad has been running well in defeat this season and he was 3rd in the Doncaster Cup behind Desert Skyline.He won the race last year and its around this time of year he comes into form. Desert Skyline is another one that has run throughout the season with few good places. He gained his reward in the Doncaster Cup when he put the race to bed with a nice turn of foot. He represents value in the race.

Dartmouth has been supplemented for the race. He won the Yorkshire Cup in May with a late surge on the Knavesmire under Ryan Moore. He then finished 4th in the Hardwicke and then was narrowly beaten in the Lonsdale Cup on his next start. On his last start he finished well beaten behind Order of St George.

For the winner I will go with the horse with form in the book which is Order of St George. I know he lost the race last year on the back of a solid run in the Arc but he looks a solid proposition to me.

Selection Order of St George 11-10

 

2.00 British Champion Sprint Stakes (Group 1)

This is one of the most anticipated races on the card and hopefully it will live up to its billing. The standout horse in the race is Harry Angel. Since he was beaten here in the Commonwealth Cup by Caravaggio he has looked different class to all his rivals. He won the Group 2 stakes at Haydock on his 2nd start of the season. He added the July Cup and the Sprint Cup to his CV by destroying a good field on both occasions. He is versatile ground wise and is all speed. The only slight worry is the track at Ascot where he has already been beaten 3 times.

Caravaggio is one of my favorite horses in training. He landed us a nice touch in the Coventry and Commonwealth Cup at the Royal Meeting last 2 years. He is unbeaten at the track and if we see the same horse as we did in June then expect fireworks at the finish. He disappointed in the July Stakes and he can be forgiven for his race in France where he had a shoe problem. He got back to winning ways in the Flying Five where we saw that devastating late turn of foot. You don’t become bad overnight like I have always said and at 9-2 he represents solid each way value against the favorite. You can even back him to place and get better returns than backing Harry Angel to win if both outcomes happen.

The Tin Man is another horse i have plenty of time for especially at Ascot. He won the race last year and did us a huge favour at the Royal Meeting when he won the Diamond Jubilee at 8-1. He also disappointed in the July Stakes but ran well in the Sprint Cup when he was 3rd to Harry Angel. He represents good value too in the race.

Quiet Reflection is another one with place claims in the race. She had injury problems this year but came back with a bang in the Group 3 at Naas. She won the Commonwealth Cup here last year and also the Sprint Cup at Haydock. She gets her ground here and could be a major player. Of the rest Tasleet could run well. He chased home The Tin Man here in the Diamond Jubilee and then Harry Angel.

I will keep the faith with Caravaggio here. Remember even if you get a place you will make profit as long as you get your % right as opposed if Harry wins at evens or 10/11 🙂 Explore the different markets as usual. Profit is the name of the game. 

Selection – Caravaggio 9-2 

 

2.40 British Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1 )

The owners of Bateel must be in heaven after seeing the rain and storm arriving in UK. She is a horse that excels in the mud and she gets her ideal ground tomorrow. She won her last 3 starts including when we were on her in Group 1 Prix Vermeille at Chantilly. Journey was 2 1/2 lengths behind and Left Hand a further length in 3rd. I am convinced she will run a big race tomorrow and I did back her a few weeks ago at 5-1. The more rain the better for her and she is tough as nails.

Her main rival will be Journey. She was 2nd in that race behind Simple Verse in 2015 but made amends last year in emphatic style. She hasn’t reached the same heights this season but she came back to form in the Vermeille last time. She could be the one chasing Bateel tomorrow. Hydrangea is another one that has come back to form lately. She has been beaten four times in Group 1 races by the classy Winter but gained her revenge on her in the Matron Stakes on her penultimate start. She was then sent to Chantilly where she finished a creditable 2nd behind Rhododendron in the Prix L’Opera beaten by a neck.

Coronet is another solid performer that wouldn’t mind the ground conditions. She broke our heart at the Royal meeting when she collared Mori in the Ribblesdale on the line. She then ran well in both Irish and Yorkshire Oaks that were both won by the Arc Heroine Enable. Her last start was in the St Leger where she finished 5th , 3 lengths behind Capri. Out of the others I would give each way chances to Horseplay ( conditions are right for her ) and The Juliet Rose( won for us twice in the same race in France last 2 years- little squeak). My main bet in race will be Bateel though and hopefully she win for us again.

Selection – Bateel 5-1 (Ante Post)

3.15 Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes (Group 1 ) 

This will be a fascinating race since 4/5 horses have the potential to win it. The soft ground makes it even trickier but let’s crack on. The obvious starting point is Ribchester , a horse that has won us some good money since his win in the Jersey Stakes here last year. Since then he has won 4 Group 1’s that include Jacques Le Marois, Lockinge, Queen Anne and most recently Prix Moulin. He was 2nd in the same race behind Minding last year. He was beaten on soft ground in the Sussex Stakes when he was given a horrible ride too. The ground tomorrow could be an issue for him if it keeps raining.

Churchill is a dual Guineas winner. He won for us in the 2000 Guineas when putting up a stellar performance in the process. He then followed up in the Irish version by winning easily. He was then beaten in the St James Palace by a very good horse in Barney Roy. He was 2nd to Ulysses in the Juddmonte before disappointing again in the Champion Stakes. He is a classy horse but he needs some luck. He drops back in distance tomorrow and that could help him. Beat the Bank has won 4 times already this season. His only defeat came at the Royal Meeting when he was 10th in the Jersey Stakes won by Le Brivido. He was visually impressive in the Joel Stakes when he burst clear with that nice turn of foot. He is meeting better horses tomorrow and will be interesting to see how he performs.

Al Wukair is the dark horse in race. He was 3rd in the 2000 Guineas behind Churchill back in May. He then finished 2nd in a Group 3 in France but won the Group 1 Jacques Le Marois in a thrilling finish. Of the others Here Comes When comes into the equation based on the soft ground. I will give him an each way chance. He won the Sussex Stakes and is a Group 1 winner. 25-1 e/w or to be placed could represent value on this ground if u fancy it. Sir John Lavery is another one that has won on soft and he has a small each way squeak in race at 33-1 too.

Selection – Beat The Bank 11-2 

3.50 Champion Stakes (Group 1 )

This is one of the best races on the card and it’s an intriguing one too. Almanzor won this last year for the French in impressive Fashion. This year Jean Claude Rouget brings over Brametot. He won his first 3 starts this season that included the French Guineas and French Derby, He suffered a setback afterwards and they took their time with him. He made his return in the D’ornano at Deauville but it was more of a preparation race in view of the Arc. He missed the kick that day and Christian Demuro looked after the horse. He went into the Arc and he ran a stormer to finish 5th. If you watched the race back you would see he was unlucky in running or else could have snatched 2nd or 3rd. These 2 runs would have done him the world of good and I am expecting a big run from him tomorrow. He will have no problem with the ground having won on soft before and he stays further. 13-2 could represent some cracking value there.

Cracksman is the 7-4 favorite but is dropping in trip which is a slight concern. The Frankel kids are still waiting for that elusive Group 1 in Europe. He has been saved for the race though but i am not too keen on him. He should have won the Irish Derby but was given a bad ride that day to finish a nostril behind Capri. The latter went on to give the form a boost by winning the St Leger at Doncaster. He won the Voltigeur Stakes at York when winning easily and his last win was in Prix Niel where he beat a bunch of monkeys. He is well short in the betting right now and think he can be taken on.

I will discount Highland Reel immediately on this ground and see you at the Breeders Cup Champ 🙂  Barney Roy is another one in race with solid credentials but whether he can perform on soft ground remains to be seen. He has won twice this season which includes the Group 1 St James Palace at Royal Ascot. He was upped in trip for the Eclipse and ran well into 2nd behind Ulysses. The latter franked the form in the Juddmonte by beating Barney Roy and Churchill. At York the ground was soft and we saw Barney struggling a little bit with give in the ground.

Poet’s Word is one we follow and he is a progressive horse. He won again at Goodwood on soft ground and he ran a cracking race in the Champion Stakes to finish 2nd beaten 1/2 length behind Decorated Knight. I remember i mentioned how he was given a ‘ cigar ride ‘ in the Huxley Stakes at Chester back in May . Since then he has progressed and comes here a fresh horse. He cannot be discounted. Cliffs of Moher could snatch a place if the market principals come short.Since finishing 2nd in the Derby he has been disappointing. But you write off an O’Brien horse at your own risk. I will back 2 horses here in Brametot and Poet’s Word.

Selections – Brametot 6-1 (Notebook ) & Poets Word 7-1

 

4.30 Balmoral Handicap 

 Read this earlier and found it interesting

‘But one word of warning if you are backing Zabeel Prince, courtesy of the Racing Post’s Paul Kealy in the Weekender on Wednesday. He reported that “Varian has run just 18 horses under a penalty since 2012 with only one of them winning and has had several short-priced losers, including ones at 1-4 and 4-7.” That’s certainly something to ponder over if you are backing the horse at around 7/2 ‘ 

 

 

Saturday 14th October

Newmarket

2.25 Purser 10-3

3.00 Expert Eye should win this. On it for 2/3 weeks Ante Post. No value now but US Navy Flag  to be placed could be decent odds. 

3.40 Lagostovegas 11-1 & Time To Study 14-1 ( 8 places William Hill and Skybet for the lottery race ) 

4.15 Noblemans Nest 5-2 

5.25 Intimation 13-2

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Chepstow – 4.10 Wholestone 5-1 , 4.45 Rock The Kasbah 7-2 

York – 3.15 Al Qahwa 11-1(Notebook) & Mr Lupton 12-1 

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Trixie – 5.15 am ( Caulfield , Australia ) Alizee 5-4 , 2.25 Purser 10-3, 4.15 Noblemans Nest 5-2

E/W Lucky 15 – 3.15 Mr Lupton 12-1. 3.40 Lagostovegas 10-1 , 4.10 Wholestone 5-1, 5.25 Intimation 13-2 

 

  • Some good races in Australia early morning tomorrow, including The Everest ,which is the richest race in the world, Will tweet my fancies on twitter soon. Be careful over jumps as always and take notes for future races. Looks tricky tomorrow.  Good luck. 

 

 

Friday 13th October

Newmarket

1.50 Abel Handy 11-2

2.25 Gavota 3-1

3.00 Dabyah 6-1

3.35 Happily 13-8( Non Runner) 

4.10 Melting Dew 11-1(Notebook) & Here and Now 12-1 ( 5 places skybet)

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York – 3.55 Star Rock 11-2 , 4.30 East Street Revue 12-1(Notebook)

Newton Abbot – 2.35 The Unit 3-1 , 3.10 Winningtry 4-1

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Lucky 15 – 2.25 Gavota 3-1 , 2.35 The Unit 3-1 ,3.35 Happily 13-8( Non Runner) 3.10 Winningtry 4-1

E/w Lucky 15 – 1.50 Abel Handy 11-2,  3.00 Dabyah 6-1, 4.10 Melting Dew 11-1 , 4.30 East Street Revue 12-1

 

* October is a tricky month to bet on the flat since its nearly the end of the season while over jumps you get horses that need their first run or those that won’t be fully fit on their first run. No point breaking the betting bank since Champions Day and Breeders Cup are coming in few weeks time. Also I cannot stress the importance of exploring place and w/o markets. It’s really easy money over time if you do it properly. Lots of you have noticed the difference already. Good luck 

 

 

 

Saturday 7th October

Newmarket

2.05 Kassia 8-1

2.40 Qemah 13-2 ( 4 places with some bookies)

4.25 Shenanigans 5-1

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Ascot -1.50 Waady 7-4 , 3.00 Danzeno 5-1 , 3.35 Mojito 5-1 & Raising Sand 12-1 (Notebook),

Redcar – 3.55 Lahore 15-8

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Trixie – 1.50 Waady 7-4 , 3.55 Lahore 15-8 , 4.25 Shenanigans 9-2

E/w Lucky 15 – 2.05 Kassia 15-2 , 2.40 Qemah 13-2 , 3.00 Danzeno 5-1 , 3.35 Mojito 5-1

 

*Few good Group 1 races in US on Saturday so I might tweet few horses tomorrow evening if I decide to bet.Will check few Oz ones later for Saturday morning if there are any interesting ones bar WINX, our bet in Cox Plate in 2 weeks time. Good luck